Why has the international shipping container volume from China to the United States decreased so much?
According to recent data released by US research firm Descartes Datamyne, the volume of sea freight containers from Asia to the United States in 2023 was 17.5085 million TEUs, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, with China's largest share decreasing by 13%.
In general, the volume of container shipping from Asia to the United States in 2023 is lower than that during the COVID-19, but it is 7% higher than that before the epidemic (2019).
In 2023, from the perspective of shipping locations, the number of sea freight containers in China decreased by 13% compared to the same period last year. Next is South Korea, which has decreased by 4%; And Vietnam decreased by 8%. It is worth noting that the container transportation volume of these top ranked China has decreased.
In addition, compared to 2019, India's shipping container volume increased by 55%, Vietnam's shipping container volume increased by 49%, and Thailand's shipping container volume also increased by 26%. These data indicate that these production bases are being transferred to China, with a significant increase in their shipping container capacity.
In contrast, China's share has continued to decline before and after the pandemic.
According to the statistics of PIERS, another data company, when the Sino US trade war began in 2018, Asia sent 1.7805 million TEUs to North America, and the Chinese Mainland contributed 1.1687 million TEUs, accounting for 65.3%. It dropped to 59.8% in 2019 and further dropped to 59.8% in 2020-2023. Asia will send 16.8526 million TEUs to North America from January to November 2023, and Chinese Mainland will contribute 9.3498 million TEUs, accounting for 55.5%. From January to November 2023, compared to the same period in 2019, the overall growth of containers sent from Asia to North America decreased by 4.1%.
From the perspective of product categories, the increase in special requirements such as furniture due to family life and online work during the epidemic has led to a significant decrease in requirements in 2023. Among them, furniture and clothing decreased by 19% year-on-year, while toys and sports equipment decreased by 17%.
Among the top 10 products in terms of transportation volume, electronic motors grew by 4%, making them the only category with year-on-year growth.
However, regardless of whether the imports of these key commodities are increasing or decreasing, China's share is shrinking, let alone furniture and clothing. At the level of smart machines, from January to November 2023, imports from China by the United States decreased by 10% year-on-year, while imports from India increased fivefold. At the laptop level, imports from China by the United States have decreased by 30%, while Vietnam has appreciated by four times. In addition, the US government is also discussing adjusting sanctions tariffs and further increasing tariffs on products related to electric vehicles, photovoltaic power generation, and top tier goods, which have significant restrictions on China's "new three types" of export trade.
However, China's exports have seen growth elsewhere, but the overall background of the decline in container volume and various commodities from China to North America is that China's export prices have significantly decreased, resulting in an increase in total exports through its low price advantage. In RMB terms, China's exports will grow by 0.6% in 2023.
In the national export commodity trade year-on-year index (national economic industry classification) released by the General Administration of Customs, from January to November, out of 40 subcategories of goods in various industries, only 4 subcategories showed an increase in price index, while the rest showed a downward trend. Taking the export of eye-catching cars as an example, in 2023, China's automobile exports reached 4.91 million units, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%, ranking first in the world for the first time. In November, the export value of automobiles increased by 28%, but the unit price decreased by 10%. Logistics professionals say that many Chinese gasoline cars are being exported to the Middle East and Africa at low prices.
With the continuous expansion of market share, new trade risks may also arise. At present, the European Union has begun investigating whether electric vehicles produced in China are sold at low prices through subsidies. At the same time, India has also begun anti-dumping investigations against Chinese products in September.
In this situation, not only the North American market, but also the market share of China's exported goods in other regions of the world may be squeezed. This indicates that the number of heavy containers in China's foreign trade exports will continue to decline. It is worth mentioning that in recent years, the proportion of empty containers in China's international trade routes has increased from 31.6% to 37%.
Despite weak domestic demand, foreign trade remains a key force supporting China's economic growth. We still need to pay attention to some trend indicators as we observe the good news of the continuous increase in container throughput. In the maritime container transportation from Asia to North America, China still dominates. However, we have to face the fact that market share has been declining year by year. Under the pressure of economic downturn, quality is better than quantity, which is a more important issue that we should pay attention to.